Expectations vs Reality

Happy Friday Bitcoiners!

Bitcoin has been chopping below $100k all week, threatening to break down even further.

The psychological line in the sand feels like it has been breached, and peak fear has officially arrived.

If you’re like me, you may have had some negative thoughts enter your mind… "Are we heading into a new bear market?” or “Am I the sucker for holding on while everyone else is selling?".

But here's the truth: we're likely just in a corrective phase. The real problem isn't Bitcoin's price action. It's your unrealistically high expectations.

This week we're diving into👇

• Why we're wired to set unrealistic expectations;

• How this destroys Bitcoin investors in real-time; and

• Three strategies to reframe your thinking and win.

Let's get to it!

1️⃣ The Biology of Disappointment

Three years ago, I was attending my cousin's wedding. Through the family grapevine, I heard one of the bridesmaids was attending (a girl I’d met four years earlier and had a massive crush on).

So what did I do? Bought a fancy new suit instead of wearing my existing one (which was perfectly fine by the way). Got all dressed up, slick red tie and all. And played it smooth by waiting until later in the evening on the dance floor to make my move.

With my expectations sky high, I finally approached her. That's when the gut punch hit - she’d had a boyfriend the whole time, something my dumb brain hadn’t even thought to consider.

I left without making a scene and went back to my room alone and dejected.

But why do we do this as human beings?

Turns out it's actually hardwired into our biology. Psychologists call this the "optimism bias", where our brains systematically overestimate positive outcomes. It's an evolutionary feature, not a bug.

Daniel Kahneman documented the "planning fallacy." We underestimate how long things take and overestimate how smoothly they'll go.

Then there's hedonic adaptation. We imagine achieving X will make us permanently happy. But once we get there, the goalposts move (remember everyone chanting for Bitcoin to hit $100k back in Q2 of last year?).

We need the next milestone because your brain literally can't help itself.

My rational brain knew the odds with that bridesmaid were thin (logically speaking it had been years since we last spoke, and most young adults are typically in a relationship or already married.

But my sky high expectation-setting brain had already written the romantic comedy ending which clearly isn’t how things played out😂.

2️⃣ How Expectations Wreck Your Bitcoin Stack

These warped expectations don't just ruin wedding weekends of plebs like me. They destroy Bitcoin portfolios in real-time.

Here are a few examples of this I’ve personally come across:

The Misery Trap

Bitcoin started off the year at ~$93k (very close to where its currently trading). Today it sits at ~$95k. By any rational measure, its essentially traded flat the entire year after it ripped 50% higher in Q4 of last year alone.

But because you expected 2025 to continue to climb higher into the $250k+ (just because of “4 year cycle theory”) you now feel like you're losing. Your emotions are driven by the gap between expectation and reality, not actual results.

The Comparison Game

As we covered in The Ego Trap, comparing yourself to whales destroys decision-making. They may be selling and taking profits, but they’ve been stacking since 2015. You're comparing your Chapter 3 to their Chapter 30.

The ‘Quick Win’ Delusion

Bitcoin Digital Asset Treasury companies (DATs) - publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin like Strategy, Marathon, and Metaplanet - were supposed to give you levered exposure to bitcoin, right?

In reality, their stock prices are down and they’re now trading at discounts to the value of their underlying Bitcoin holdings:

But the reality? Since 2022, MSTR is still up 5x and Bitcoin is still up over 300%. This $100k price level breach really is just what healthy corrections look like when your expectations aren't "only up forever".

3️⃣ Three Ways to Fix Your Expectation Framework

Here are two easy strategies on how to realign your expectations so Bitcoin stops causing you anxiety and starts helping you building wealth👇

Strategy #1: Reframe Bitcoin as Wealth Protection

Stop viewing Bitcoin as your ticket to instant wealth. Start viewing it as protection against monetary debasement.

This shift sets realistic expectations. Worst case? You keep pace with inflation. Best case? You generate substantial wealth. Either way, you win.

It refocuses your attention from passive hoping to active building. Instead of "How long until my Bitcoin stack makes me rich?" ask "How do I expand my income so I can buy more sats?"

Strategy #2: Expand Your “Income Pie”

The wealthy don't obsess over net worth. They obsess over their own income-generating ability.

Stop dividing a fixed income pie between Bitcoin and bitcoin equities (MSTR, Bitcoin miners, DATs etc.). Instead, ask yourself "How do I expand the entire pie?".

Easier said than done, right? Not really.. want to stack more sats? Get a job in Bitcoin. DM someone on X or LinkedIn. Check out BitcoinerJobs.com or bitvocation.com for opportunities to work with other fellow Bitcoiners who share similar values to you.

Or become your own Bitcoin analyst. Sites like Bitbo or CheckonChain have tons of free charts and data on long-term power law, MVRV ratios, Bitcoin’s realized cap etc. Maybe you compile them all into a easy to read "Bitcoin Data Report" and use it as proof of work alongside your CV when applying?

There are countless ways to make money in this industry. You just need to be gritty enough to find the opportunities and stick with them long term.

Key Takeaway

The problem isn't Bitcoin. It's your expectations.

Reframe Bitcoin as a wealth preservation tool while you focus on expanding your income. If Bitcoin moons, great. If it only tracks inflation, you still retain purchasing power. Either way, you're focused on what you control (income growth) versus what you don't (price movements).

The wedding story I mentioned earlier taught me an important lesson - that unrealistic expectations guarantee disappointment. I let my imagination run wild and paid the emotional price.

Don't make the same mistake with Bitcoin. Lower your expectations on timing. Raise your focus on fundamentals and income growth (your future self will undoubtedly thank you).

Stay grounded,

@Publius256